According to executives on Tuesday, the largest U.S. banks are preparing for a poorer economy next year as inflation threatens consumer demand.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), said CNBC that although consumers and businesses are doing well, things may not stay that way for very long as the economy weakens and inflation reduces consumer purchasing power.
“Those things might very easily derail the economy and lead to this mild to hard recession,” he claimed.
According to him, consumers have $1.5 trillion in more savings thanks to economic stimulus initiatives, but it might be exhausted by mid-2023. In addition, Dimon claimed that after hiking the benchmark interest rate to 5%, the Federal Reserve may take a three to six month break, but that might “not be adequate” to reduce the high inflation rate.
The U.S. central bank this month increased interest rates by 75 basis points to 3.75%-4% during its fourth straight meeting, but it also hinted that it expected to switch to smaller increases at its next meeting.
The day after a group of top bankers discussed the dangers to the economy, shares of major banks dropped precipitously. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), and Citigroup Inc. (C.N) each experienced declines of more than 2%, while Bank of America sank more than 4%.
At a Goldman Sachs financial conference, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan informed attendees that the bank’s analysis indicates “negative growth” in the first quarter of 2023, but that the contraction will be “modest.”